Eight out of a possible 27 emerging technologies will be transformational to business and should be considered for adoption, according to analyst Gartner.
That’s the key message in its report ‘Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2008’, which puts Web 2.0, SOA (service orientated architecture) and cloud computing and right up there as technologies to pursue.
“Although Web 2.0 is now entering the ‘trough of disillusionment’, it will emerge within two years to have transformational impact, as companies steadily gain more experience and success with both the technologies and the cultural implications,” says Jackie Fenn, vice president and Gartner Fellow.
“Later – in two to five years – cloud computing and SOA, which are moving up the ‘slope of enlightenment’, will deliver transformation in terms of driving deep changes in the role and capabilities of IT,” she adds.
“Finally, public virtual worlds, which are suffering from disillusionment after their peak of hype in 2007, will in the long term represent an important media channel to support and build broader communities of interest,” she concludes.
Fenn believes that Green IT will rise naturally up the business agenda in tandem with other environmental issues, but suggests that, changing technology will be the trigger pushing users towards increasingly cost effective cloud computing services, in place of purchasing ‘on-premise’ equipment.
“Many types of technology providers are aligning themselves with this trend, with the result that confusion and hype will continue for at least another year before distinct submarkets and market leaders emerge,” she says.
“Following the trend of the last few years, many of the new entries on this year’s Hype Cycle – including microblogging, social networking platforms and cloud computing – are making their impact in the consumer world before they hit businesses,” she concedes.
“Other technologies that have passed the trigger where they start to be interesting to businesses include 3-D printing, surface computing, augmented reality and mobile robots. We expect early adopters to start applying these in novel ways and driving new classes of application, such as using 3-D printers to dramatically change the supply chain by creating products and replacement parts at the point of need.”