Unemployment could reach 2.85 million by end of 2012 if business conditions do not improve; and the manufacturing sector could be leading the downward spiral, according to the latest quarterly Labour Market Outlook from the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD).
The report's net employment balance, which measures the difference between the proportion of 1000 surveyed employers who intend to increase total staffing levels and those who intend to decrease total staffing levels in the first quarter of 2012, shows employment growth in manufacturing is set to stall.
Net employment intentions in manufacturing are down to just +1, from +14 three months ago; worse than the services sector (down to +11 for the current quarter from +18 in the last quarter) and private sector employment intentions as a whole, which remain in positive territory even though they have fallen from +20 to a much more subdued +10 in the past three months.
The figures further undermine hopes that private sector recruitment will compensate for reductions in public sector employment where the balance, unsurprisingly, is at a solidly negative -49, days.