The survey of 354 manufacturers showed that output growth was stable at an above-average pace in the three months to October relative to the quarter to September. But output growth is expected to stall in the three months to January 2019 – marking the weakest expectations in around three years.
Investment intentions for the year ahead also deteriorated significantly in the three months to October, with spending on buildings, training and innovation expected to be cut back in the year ahead. Capital expenditure on plant and machinery is set to be reduced at the fastest pace since July 2009.
Brexit of course plays a part in this uncertainty, as concerns that political and economic conditions were likely to limit export orders over the next three months were the highest since immediately after the EU Referendum. Skills shortages are also biting, with concerns that access to workers is likely to constrain investment over the year ahead remaining at a survey high.
Rain Newton-Smith, CBI chief economist, said: “This is a sobering set of figures demanding immediate action at home and abroad. Planned investment is being scaled back in the face of deepening Brexit uncertainty, so it’s vital that the Chancellor incentivises manufacturers to spend in areas that will help them become more productive. Using the upcoming Budget to increase the Annual Investment Allowance, alongside a wider review, could help the UK become more competitive with its global peers.
“Combined with meaningful business rates reform, these steps can help the UK economy to make the advances in digital and new technologies envisaged in the Industrial Strategy.
“Aside from much-need progress on domestic policy, the Government’s number one priority on Brexit must be securing the Withdrawal Agreement, ushering in a much-needed transition period that will give businesses the breathing space they need. Protecting jobs and people’s livelihoods from a lost generation of investment remains urgent.”
Tom Crotty, group director of INEOS and chair of CBI Manufacturing Council, said: “These figures are concerning and must not be taken lightly. Ongoing uncertainty around Brexit has made for a particularly tough quarter for the UK’s manufacturers. It is not surprising that many firms have recently moved publicly from contingency planning to action as the likelihood of a ‘no deal’ Brexit increases.
“Manufacturers will also be deeply concerned with the Government’s proposals for a post-Brexit immigration system, which, by dismissing the importance of low-skilled labour to the economy, risks worsening skills shortages.
“Manufacturers’ main priority for the coming months will continue to be for the Government to protect frictionless trade with the EU after Brexit. The Autumn Budget also presents an excellent opportunity for the Chancellor to give the sector a welcome shot of optimism.”
Key findings:
• 27% of firms said the volume of output over the past three months was up and 14% said it was down, giving a balance of +13%, up from +11% in the quarter to September.
• 21% of businesses reported an increase in new orders, and 28% reported a decrease, giving a rounded balance of -6%, the weakest balance since October 2015. Domestic orders (-10%) and export orders both fell (-8%), a weaker reading than in the previous quarter (+8% and +21% respectively).
• 26% of manufacturers said employee numbers were up, and 18% said they were down, giving a balance of +7%, marking a slowdown in growth from the previous quarter (+17%) though above the long-run average (-7%).
• Growth in average unit costs (+30%) decelerated slightly compared with the previous quarter (+36%) but remained well above the long-run average (+12%).
• Growth in average domestic prices slowed to +6% (from +20% in the three months to July), but remained above the long run average (-1%).
• Growth in average export prices eased (+3%, from +12%) to the slowest since October 2016.
