Manufacturing output slumps again

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Total production output is estimated to have increased by 0.9% in November 2015 compared with the same month a year ago. There were increases in three of its four main sectors, with the largest contribution coming from mining & quarrying, which increased by 10.5%.

Manufacturing output decreased by 1.2% in November 2015 compared with November 2014. The largest contribution to the decrease came from the manufacture of machinery and equipment not elsewhere classified, which decreased by 13.7%.

Manufacturing output also fell by 0.4% in November 2015 compared with October 2015. The largest contribution to the decrease came from the manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations, which decreased by 4.9%.

Total production output is estimated to have decreased by 0.7% between October 2015 and November 2015. There were decreases in all of the main sectors, with manufacturing, mining and quarrying, and electricity and gas having the largest contributions to the decrease.

In the three months to November 2015, total production and manufacturing output increased by 0.2% and 0.5% respectively on the previous three months, and production and manufacturing were 9.1% and 6.1% respectively below their values reached in the pre-downturn GDP peak in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2008.

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Zach Witton, deputy chief economist at EEF, said: “Today’s data increases the likelihood that industry ended 2015 in the red, with the weakness broad-based across sectors, reflecting the challenging conditions facing manufacturers. The significant build-up of risks throughout last year, linked to the slowdown in the global economy, loom large for manufacturers as we go into 2016 with no sign that slowing export demand, the strength of the exchange rate and volatility in major markets will soon ease.”

Mark Stephenson, UK manufacturing industry leader at Deloitte, said: “November’s manufacturing output highlights the difficulties UK manufacturers continue to face. The pound remains relatively strong, particularly when compared to the Euro. This makes for very tough exporting conditions to the UK’s largest single market for manufactured goods.

“Unexpectedly poor factory output in China has not only dented investor and business confidence, but introduces demand concerns for suppliers to China and supply chain risk for those dependent on Chinese components."

He added: “In spite of the output data, UK manufacturing continues to be very competitive with some of the most innovative businesses and skilled talent in the world. The UK PMI remains above 50 and UK manufacturing should prove to be relatively resilient in 2016.”