Manufacturing, the largest component of production, is estimated to have decreased by 0.4% between these periods. However, when comparing September 2015 with August 2015, manufacturing is estimated to have increased by 0.8%, the largest monthly rise since April 2014. This followed a slightly smaller increase of 0.4% in August 2015 and a decrease of 0.7% in July 2015.
The largest contribution to the quarterly growth came from mining and quarrying, which increased by 2.8%, the fourth consecutive quarterly increase since Quarter 3 (July to Sep) 2014.
Total production output is estimated to have increased by 1.1% in September 2015 compared with September 2014. There were increases in 3 of the 4 main sectors, with mining and quarrying output being the largest contributor, increasing by 8.6%.
Manufacturing output decreased by 0.6% in September 2015 compared with September 2014. The largest contribution to the decrease came from the manufacture of machinery and equipment not elsewhere classified, which decreased by 13.7%.
Total production output in September 2015 is estimated to have decreased by 0.2% compared with August 2015. There were decreases in 2 of the 4 main sectors, with the largest contribution coming from mining & quarrying, which decreased by 4.9%.
In the three months to September 2015, production and manufacturing were 9.3% and 6.4% respectively below their figures reached in the pre-downturn GDP peak in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2008.
The preliminary estimate of GDP, published on 27 October 2015, contained a forecasted increase of 0.3% for production output in Quarter 3 (July to Sep) 2015. This release of data estimates that production output increased by 0.2% between Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2015 and Quarter 3 (July to Sep) 2015 and the impact on the previously published GDP estimate for Quarter 3 (July to Sep) 2015 is minimal.
Lee Hopley, chief economist at EEF, the manufacturers’ organisation, said: “While manufacturing contracted in the last quarter there are signs that some parts of industry were at least were mounting a comeback after a summer lull.
“Together with the sharp rebound in October’s PMI, we may yet see some more positive data readings in the remainder of 2015, but the risks, reinforced in yesterday’s Inflation report, from weaker activity in emerging markets are likely to present some headwinds for manufacturers into next year.
“Indeed, another disappointing set of trade figures for manufacturing show that these effects are already being felt with a significant fall in goods exports to China over the past three months.”
