Output set to fall says CBI Industrial Trends survey

Of the 409 manufacturers responding to the survey, fewer than one in five expect to increase their volume of output over the course of the next three months, while 28% expect it to fall. The resulting balance of -9% marks the lowest prediction this year, with only motor vehicles and the transport equipment sub-sector expecting to increase output. Total order books remained broadly flat, although there was an upswing in export orders which rebounded from last month's low driven predominantly by the mechanical engineering, food, drink & tobacco and motor vehicles and transport equipment sub-sectors. Chemicals – which represents the largest export sector in the survey – reported a sharp drop. CBI head of economic analysis Anna Leach said the lift in overseas demand had not been enough to lift overall demand. She continued: "Business confidence continues to be undermined by uncertainty over events in Europe and the fast approaching US fiscal cliff. However, we expect UK growth to pick-up somewhat in 2013 as this uncertainty gradually subsides and global growth increases."